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Feb 16, 2026
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LONG
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Hougan identifies "AI agents using DeFi and stablecoins to transact" as a major narrative meta for 2026. AI agents cannot use bank accounts; they require programmable money. This creates a structural, non-speculative demand for stablecoins and the DeFi rails that support them. LONG. Invest in the infrastructure (Stablecoin issuers, DeFi protocols) that AI agents will utilize. The technology for autonomous AI transactions may take longer to mature than the narrative suggests. |
The Block
The optimistic case for crypto in 2026, with ...
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Feb 16, 2026
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LONG
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Hougan states that institutional investors (BlackRock, etc.) "don't have time" to research deep-tier assets. They are allocating strictly to the top two assets via ETFs. In a bear market ("crypto winter"), liquidity consolidates into quality. While retail flees, institutional inflows are "papering over" the weakness in BTC and ETH, creating a floor that smaller assets lack. LONG. These are the only two assets with structural institutional bids in 2026. Global recession or a reversal of the "Clarity Act" regulation could halt institutional flows. |
The Block
The optimistic case for crypto in 2026, with ...
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Feb 16, 2026
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LONG
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BlackRock bought UNI tokens, listed Bidd on Uniswap, and the CFO stated they plan to tokenize *all* ETFs in 3-12 months. This is a "fat accompli." BlackRock is effectively underwriting Uniswap as the infrastructure for future financial rails. BLK benefits from the asset management fees of tokenized products, while UNI benefits from the legitimacy and volume of institutional DeFi usage. LONG. A play on the convergence of TradFi (BLK) and DeFi (UNI). Regulatory crackdown on DeFi protocols requiring KYC (though BlackRock's "Bidd" is permissioned, mitigating this). |
The Block
The optimistic case for crypto in 2026, with ...
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Feb 16, 2026
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AVOID
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Hougan notes that assets without ETFs (specifically naming Sui and Avalanche) were down 70% in 2025 and are "down even more in 2026." Institutional capital is the only active buyer in this market. Since institutions are not buying "secondary assets" (Alts), and retail has already sold off, there is no marginal buyer for these L1s until the cycle fully turns. AVOID. These assets are "zombies" until retail interest returns or they gain ETF approval. A sudden "Altseason" triggered by a specific app breakout or unexpected regulatory approval for an Alt-ETF. |
The Block
The optimistic case for crypto in 2026, with ...
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Feb 16, 2026
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LONG
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The market fears MicroStrategy will be forced to sell BTC to cover obligations. Hougan counters: "They have enough cash to pay the dividend on their preferreds... I don't think they'll be selling Bitcoin." The market is pricing in a "forced liquidation" discount. If MSTR simply holds (or continues buying as Hougan predicts), that discount will unwind as the fear dissipates. LONG (Contrarian). Betting against the "forced seller" narrative. Bitcoin price dropping below $50k for an extended period (3+ years) could eventually stress their balance sheet. |
The Block
The optimistic case for crypto in 2026, with ...
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Feb 16, 2026
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LONG
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Prediction markets are booming, and traditional finance is catching up. Hougan explicitly mentions CME is "now doing its own prediction markets." Prediction markets are gaining mass adoption (Uber-style trajectory). As regulatory clarity improves, regulated incumbents like CME are best positioned to capture institutional volume in this new asset class, stealing share from offshore/crypto-native platforms. LONG. A regulated way to play the growth of the prediction market sector. Strict US regulations banning election betting or prediction markets entirely. |
The Block
The optimistic case for crypto in 2026, with ...
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Feb 10, 2026
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LONG
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Financial advisors are buying the current 50% drawdown, viewing it as a standard cyclical correction rather than a systemic failure. The selling pressure is coming from "fast money" (hedge funds) and "OGs" taking profit, not the core ETF investor base. Historically, Bitcoin has retraced 77-85% in winters; the current 50% drop suggests ETFs are actually buoying the price. If the market stabilizes here, it signals a bottom. Bitwise advisor accounts showed significant net inflows last week (counter-trend to the price action). If this turns into a full "Crypto Winter" like 2018/2022, prices could drop significantly further before bottoming. |
CNBC
ETF Edge on how bitcoin’s 2026 slide is throw...
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Feb 10, 2026
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LONG
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Hougan predicts a migration from single-asset exposure (holding just Bitcoin or Ethereum) to diversified index funds. As the asset class matures, crypto will follow the trajectory of equities and bonds, where the vast majority of capital sits in broad indexes (like the S&P 500) rather than individual stock picks. Investors will want to capture the whole market rather than guessing winners. Bitwise is seeing interest in their index fund (BITW) despite the broader market downturn. Continued correlation where all crypto assets fall together during bear markets. |
CNBC
ETF Edge on how bitcoin’s 2026 slide is throw...
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Feb 10, 2026
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LONG
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Bitwise is seeing strong inflows into their Solana staking ETF (Ticker: BOL) compared to Ethereum products. The "Yield Spread" argument. Solana offers a ~7% staking yield, whereas Ethereum offers only ~2%. For investors, a 7% yield is a meaningful differentiator that cushions volatility, while 2% is negligible when the underlying asset swings 50%. Inflows into BOL are outperforming despite the market slide. Solana price volatility overwhelming the 7% yield; regulatory changes to staking rewards. |
CNBC
ETF Edge on how bitcoin’s 2026 slide is throw...
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Feb 10, 2026
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LONG
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There is strong inflow interest specifically in Solana staking ETFs (BOL), while Ethereum staking interest has been muted. The "Yield Spread" argument. Solana offers a ~7% staking yield compared to Ethereum's ~2%. For income-focused investors, the 2% on ETH is marginal, but 7% on SOL is a material differentiator. Strong inflows into BOL since launch despite the broader market drawdown. Volatility of the underlying Solana token could wipe out the yield benefit. |
CNBC
How crypto's recent volatility impacts ETF in...
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Feb 10, 2026
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LONG
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The next 10-year growth story for ETFs will be cracking open private markets (private equity, private shares) for everyday investors. Similar to how ETFs democratized institutional strategies (options/yield), they will soon democratize access to private companies that family offices have traded for decades. N/A (Forward-looking prediction). Regulatory hurdles and liquidity concerns regarding private assets in public wrappers. |
CNBC
How crypto's recent volatility impacts ETF in...
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Feb 10, 2026
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LONG
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Bitcoin is down ~50% from highs, but financial advisors are "buying the dip" counter-trend. The selling is driven by early adopters (OGs) trimming long-held positions, not by ETF investors fleeing. ETFs are acting as a stabilizing floor. In previous bear markets (2018, 2022), Bitcoin retraced 77-85%. Currently, it is only down ~50%, suggesting institutional capital is buoying the price. Outflows are minimal relative to price drops (only ~$7B outflows vs. massive market cap drop). Continued "OG" selling or a failure of the "digital gold" narrative if Gold continues to outperform significantly. |
CNBC
How crypto's recent volatility impacts ETF in...
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Feb 10, 2026
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LONG
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The crypto market is maturing and will follow the trajectory of equities and bonds, where the vast majority of capital sits in diversified index funds rather than single-asset products. Investors will eventually migrate away from picking single winners (like just holding BTC or ETH) toward broad-market exposure to capture the entire asset class growth. Bitwise's BITW is cited as the largest crypto index ETF, positioning for this migration. Crypto correlation remains high; if Bitcoin fails, the index likely fails too. |
CNBC
How crypto's recent volatility impacts ETF in...
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